King Of The Underdogs (2017) Streaming Sports

Numbers game: Which AFL teams should rise or fall? Half of the 2. 01. AFL season is in the book, so with just 9. September? This is a follow- up column to my annual look at the AFL by the numbers ahead of the season. As a reminder, what we’re doing here is throwing narratives out the window and sticking to the cold comfort of points, margins and other salient facts. The numbers presented in these tables below are the unspoken truths of professional Australian rules football; you can only outperform the maths for so long.

Before we begin, some narrative. We are in the midst of a phenomenal season, that can not be denied. While we crossed off four teams on Monday, as we sit here heading into Round 1. Outside of the 8- 2 Adelaide Crows and hot- fire spitting Port Adelaide Power, no team has a percentage of more than 1. The ladder changes shape by the week, and with six games a week for the next three rounds that volatility will continue.

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Port Adelaide, Richmond and West Coast could nab a top- four spot this weekend. Essendon could temporarily find itself in the top eight. Geelong could rise to second with a win over Adelaide. Plenty is on the line week to week. But, this time of year makes sorting signal from noise mighty difficult.

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So let’s get to the numbers. Pythagorean expected wins. The original and the best, Pythagorean expected wins seek to cut through the noise of 1. If a team has more wins than their Pythagorean win total, they’re outperforming their underlying ability and are a candidate for second half regression, and vice versa.

And folks, one team is outperforming like no team has outperformed in the period that I have this data. Free Downloads Manifesto (2017). Team. Wins. Py. Ex Wins+/- Adelaide. Brisbane. 11. 2- 0. Carlton. 32. 6. 0. Collingwood. 45. 0- 1. Essendon. 54. 7. 0.

King Of The Underdogs (2017) Streaming Complet

Fremantle. 62. 9. Geelong. 76. 7. 0. Gold Coast. 32. 8. GWS Giants. 86. 8. Hawthorn. 42. 6. 1. Melbourne. 56. 2- 1. North Melbourne. 44.

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Port Adelaide. 57. Richmond. 65. 9. 0. St. Kilda. 54. 8. Sydney. 35. 0- 2.

WCE6. 5. 2. 0. 8. Western Bulldogs. The Fremantle Dockers have outperformed their underlying points totals by a remarkable three wins through ten games of football. It’s not driven by their first two rounds either; the Dockers have been outperforming all season. They sit somewhat precariously inside the eight – if any of Melbourne, St Kilda or Essendon win one more game than the Dockers they will fall out of the finals.

It’s a remarkable statistic. Very few teams outperform their Pythagorean win total by three wins over a full year. Fremantle have done it in two and a half months. Their 3. 1 win outperformance is the largest through ten rounds in 1. I have this statistic. Indeed, only four teams have outperformed by more than two wins through ten rounds.

Team. Year+/- Pythag. Win % (R1- 1. 0)Win % (R1. North Melbourne. 20. Richmond. 20. 06. North Melbourne. 20. Carlton. 20. 16. 2.

Fremantle. 20. 17. Normally when teams outperform we should expect them to come crashing back to earth.

But funnily enough, three other teams who’ve smashed through the +2 Pythagorean barrier after ten rounds have pretty much maintained their level of performance. Indeed, North Melbourne have been the kings of beating the Pythag maths over the past ten years. Their 2. 01. 0 side improved their winning percentage in the second half of the season from 4. That wasn’t an issue for North Melbourne’s 2. Is that the future for Fremantle?

It’s tough to say. Carlton’s early season outperformance last year gave way to an end of season fadeout. The Blues were an old, transitioning team laden with some veterans – that’s where Fremantle finds itself in 2. The other interesting Pythagorean stories are the underperformance of Port Adelaide and Sydney – both of whom have two or more fewer wins than their underlying potential. Unlike Fremantle’s case, undershooting a Pythagorean win total is more common.

Port Adelaide have performed at the level of a seven to eight win team through ten rounds. It’s worth remembering they’ve only played nine games in those ten rounds, rather than ten like the rest of the competition. If the Power maintain their points for and against this weekend they will break above eight Pythagorean wins – joining the Crows at the top of the table. The Power’s rise to the upper echelons of the premiership table – it’s worth remembering that during their 2. Port Adelaide finished seventh and fifth, respectively – is as surprising as Sydney’s fall.

And the two teams share something else through the first ten rounds of the season. Close wins and losses. Port Adelaide and Sydney are two of the five teams that have played in close games (games with a final margin of 1.

That helps explain part of their underperformance against Pythagorean wins – if we credit the Power and Swans with wins from one of their two close games, their win totals look more even. Team. Close Wins. Close Games+/- Adelaide. Brisbane. 11. 0. 5.

Carlton. 00. 0. 0. Collingwood. 12. 0. Essendon. 00. 0. 0. Fremantle. 33. 1. Geelong. 22. 1. 0.

Gold Coast. 01- 0. GWS Giants. 44. 2. Hawthorn. 22. 1. 0. Melbourne. 02- 1. North Melbourne. 03- 1. Port Adelaide. 02- 1.

Richmond. 14- 1. 0. St. Kilda. 00. 0. Sydney. 02- 1. 0. WCE2. 40. 0. Western Bulldogs. They aren’t the only luckless teams thus far. Gold Coast (0- 1), Melbourne (0- 2) and North Melbourne (0- 3) are also winless in games decided by less than 1.

Richmond find themselves one game behind the ledger in tight finishes, their wet- weather victory over the Eagles in Round 3 their lone close win. The Tigers lost three on the trot by a combined ten points in Rounds 7, 8 and 9. In Round 7, an insufficient intent out- of- bounds free kick paid against Jayden Short was the death blow. In Round 8, they got out of jail against the Dockers in the last minute, only to lock themselves back up with an atrocious centre bounce set up in the last 3.

In Round 9, a last- gasp goal was overruled on review, and a favourable bounce of the ball on a kick down the guts by the Giants created an opportunity GWS were good enough to take. With all these luckless teams, it holds that many other teams have had a better time of it in the close ones. The biggest beneficiary of football vagaries to date has been the GWS Giants, who are 4- 0 in games decided by less than 1. The Giants have won four of their last five games as their injury toll mounts; all four victories have been by single- digit margins. The early candidate for game of the year was first, with Toby Mc. Lean’s tough miss the last act of a tense Friday night encounter in Round 6. After their touching up at the hands of the Saints, the Giants have won three straight by margins of three, three and eight points against the Pies, Tigers and Eagles respectively.

They were due some luck: last year, the Giants won just one of five close games. Fremantle are also yet to lose a close game in 2. Other teams with a clean slate include Hawthorn (2- 0), Geelong (2- 0, meaning the Cats have won 1.

Brisbane (1- 0, in Round 1. It’s been a little rocky since). A point of interest: there have been 1. That’s bang on the average over the past decade.

Why’s that interesting? Because numbers are interesting. Blow- outs. The inverse of close games are blow- outs: games where the margin of victory is greater than the average plus one standard deviation. History shows teams that are able to blow out their opponents tend to be the better teams in the competition, and conversely teams who are consistently blown out tend to be the worse teams. This year, the price of entry to Club Blow- out (that sounded a lot better in my head) is 5. Where there has been a garden variety amount of close games, the number of blow- outs recorded (1. Gold Coast joined the competition.

In keeping with this theme, the points required to constitute a blow- out is the lowest it has been since 2. It shows in the distribution of blow- out losses across the competition.

A tribute fit for The King, Donald Trump gets caught glove- handed, and a PGA Tour rookie's Masters offer to a model. Welcome to another edition of The Grind, where we suddenly feel the need to add a red cardigan to our sweater collection. Move over green jacket (at least, for a couple weeks) and make room for Arnold Palmer’s signature look becoming golf’s newest coveted piece of clothing. Chris Condon. Pretty sharp. We also have a hankering for Palmer’s (other) signature drink, the “Hummer.”Which, of course, can be made from vodka poured from these cool collector’s edition bottles: Courtesy of Ketel One.

You get the point. Last week was all about The King, and it was great. Oh, and if you forgot about my birthday, one of those bottles - - or cases - - will do just fine. WE'RE BUYINGMarc Leishman: The Aussie isn’t the best- known golfer on the planet, but you’d have trouble finding a more well- liked player. He’s also a man who has a different perspective of overcoming long odds.

Two years ago, Leishman’s wife, Audrey, was given a five- percent chance to live. But there she was on Sunday, healthy and happy to see her husband win his first PGA Tour title in nearly five years. And Woods looked pretty solid - - especially on that fist pump! We’re also buying Tiger’s fans, in particular, the ones who waited for hours in NYC to get copies of his new book signed.

One group that included a guy who drove all the way from Pittsburgh (he’s the one with the beard) camped out overnight in front of the Barnes & Noble to guarantee a chance of meeting their idol. That's dedication. And yes, he told me his new favorite golfer is Andrew .

Obviously. Grayson Murray’s Twitter feed: It’s always entertaining, but this week was especially good. First, Grayson shared this gem from his past: And then he made a Twitter offer to model Lindsey Pelas. And she accepted. And Grayson got really excited: This is Lindsey Pelas, by the way: Good luck next week, Grayson. We’re pulling for you. WE'RE SELLINGExtremely high winds: That’s what caused the PGA Tour Latinoamerica event in Guatemala to be shortened to an unofficial 1.

ERUPTING volcano nearby: By tour rules, the purse was divided in half and then split among the 1. Tough break for Christian Espinoza, who had fired a course- record 6. Gator touching: As badass as it was for PGA Tour rookie Cody Gribble to give a love tap to a gator at Bay Hill, we are NOT advising that you ever try this. In fact, we’re fairly sure #Arnie. Wouldnt: Smylie Kaufman’s reaction to seeing one of these large reptiles, however, is something we can get behind: Bryson De.

Chambeau’s new putting stroke: This is not as easy as it looks, Bryson. Might we suggest trying a side- saddle method?

Right. ON TAPThe PGA Tour splits up, with the top 6. Austin for the WGC- Dell Match Play and others heading to the Puerto Rico Open. For everything – and I mean, EVERYTHING – you need to know about the opening matches at Austin Country Club, check out Joel Beall’s thorough preview.

Random tournament fact: Tony Finau, the defending champ in Puerto Rico, is going to Austin instead even though he’s only the first alternate. WGCs = BIG $. RANDOM PROP BETS OF THE WEEK- - We will see two players nearly come to blows in Austin: 1. This would be much lower if Miguel Angel Jimenez and Keegan Bradley were in the field.)- - Tiger Woods will win play the 2. Masters: 1. 0- to- 1 odds- - Grayson Murray is practicing more than ever this week: LOCKVIRAL VIDEO OF THE WEEKThis driving range salute to Arnold Palmer at Bay Hill was awesome: VIRAL VIDEO OF THE WEEK (GOLF FAIL DIVISION)This “Happy Gilmore” attempt was not awesome: We just hope whoever filmed that is still alive. PHOTO OF THE WEEKWhat’s the easiest way to get caught playing golf? Take a photo at a golf course. While wearing your golf glove.

Whoops. TWEET OF THE WEEKDamn right, Jordan. QUOTE OF THE WEEK“For the past year Harvey has been asking, . Have a day, Harvey. THIS WEEK IN RANDOM GOLF KEEPSAKESThanks to Ian Poulter, Rory Mc. Ilroy was reunited with the cop car that drove raced him to his Ryder Cup Sunday singles match at Medinah in 2.

Of course, Rory's keepsake from that frantic, memorable day, is his fiancee, Erica Stoll, who was then a PGA of America employee. Let's call it a draw. THIS WEEK IN PAIGE SPIRANAC BEING PAIGE SPIRANACYou do you, Paige. THIS AND THATCostco and Acushnet are in a legal battle over golf balls. As long as this doesn't affect the frozen dumplings I buy in bulk from the warehouse chain, I don't care who wins.

Stacy Lewis finished T- 2 - - as usual. Steve Stricker blew a three- shot lead in his PGA Tour Champions debut, losing by a stroke to Tom Lehman. Maybe Steve should have named Tom one of his four Presidents Cup vice captains. Jack Nicklaus shot six shots lower than his age (7.

Ernie Els for Autism event. OK, now he’s just showing off. And finally, I was devastated to learn the Peachwave Yogurt I often (probably too often) walk to in town has closed.

Seriously, where am I going to get my froyo fix now? What you can't see in that reflection are the tears streaming down my face. RANDOM QUESTIONS TO PONDERHas Tiger Woods ever ridden the subway? How much did Ian Poulter pay for that cop car?

How much will I save by that Peachwave closing? WATCH: GOLF DIGEST VIDEOS.